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Newcastle United finished last season in a respectable twelfth position, but what their finishing position masked was the loss of Andy Carroll. With the new season only two weeks away, and with top scorer Kevin Nolan gone to West Ham, Newcastle desperately need to find a new striker who can fire in the goals.
Newcastle United with Andy Carroll
Prior to selling Andy Carroll to Liverpool, Newcastle United had acquired 30 points and scored 36 goals in total. Not bad for Premier League newcomers. Andy Carroll had scored 11 of those 36 goals (30%) and the team were scoring 1.6 goals per match, whilst conceding 1.3 goals.
At that point, Newcastle had played 23 games in total and were accruing 1.3 points per game. This meant that they sat ninth in the Premier League and were only eight points off of fifth placed Spurs.
Newcastle United without Andy Carroll
After Newcastle sold Andy Carroll to Liverpool things took a turn for the worse. From the next 15 games, they would only accrue 16 points and score 20 goals. An average of 1.3 goals scored per game; whilst the amount they conceded increased to 1.5 goals per game.
| Games | Average Goals Scored | Average Goals Conceded | Average Points Per Game | |
| With Andy Carroll |
23 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Without Andy Carroll |
15 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.06 |
After selling Andy Carroll, Newcastle would slip down the table and finish in twelfth place on virtue of goal difference above Stoke and Bolton, and only seven points off of the relegation zone
Kevin Nolan departs for West Ham
To compound matters, Kevin Nolan left Tyneside for London’s east end, signing for West Ham. Nolan finished last season as top scorer for the Magpies with 12 goals in the Premier League. With Carroll departing too, that’s 23 of Newcastle’s 56 goals last season (41%) disappearing with them.
After Kevin Nolan, the next highest goalscorers were Leon Best, Shola Ameobi and Peter Lovenkrands, all with six goals – that is not going to cut it in the top flight.
Money to spend, but on who?
Newcastle have the £35m to spend they received from the sale of Andy Carroll and also the £2m from the sale of Nolan, so there is money to spend, the question is though, on who?
Alan Pardew has already brought in Demba Ba from West Ham. He scored 7 goals in 13 appearances for the Hammers last season and he is not shy about shooting; taking 50 strikes at goal in his 13 West Hamm appearances – that’s almost 4 shots a game. However, he has a goals to shots ratio of just 14%, so they really need a talented goal-getter.
Jermain Defoe is a target, as is Peter Crouch, but both look unlikely to join the Magpies and reports in recent days have linked Alan Pardew with Mevlut Erding from PSG. Erding struggled in France last season, scoring just 8 times in 34 Ligue 1 matches, only a season after notching a goal in every other league game for Les Parisiens.
Newcastle need a striker or they will be fighting relegation
A player like Defoe could fire the goals to keep Newcastle up, but he would need someone alongside him to win the knockdowns for him to thrive.
What Newcastle really need is someone with size who can score. Defoe is too small and lightweight in a team that needs someone bigger and more physical. Erding may be the answer, but if Newcastle fail to sign anyone then they will be fighting relegation this season. If they continue to score points at an average of 1.06 per game, they will have 40 points come the end of the season. Right on the traditional benchmark for staying up.
About the Author
Mark Redford is an avid football fan and runs the blog footballfollower.com where you can check out his opinions, and bias, on the Premier league.
Contact:
Mark Redford
T: @mark_redford
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