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In The Stands have pulled out all the stops in an attempt to accurately predict the winner of Saturday’s UEFA Champions League Final between Barcelona and Manchester United. Read on for more details…
So who is going to win tonight? Take your pick; Blaugrana or Red Devils? Pep or Fergie? ‘Wazza’ or the ‘Flea’. A repeat of Rome or some sweet Mancunian revenge? Still undecided? Worry not.
The whizz kids and footballing experts here at In The Stands have sought to provide a comprehensive, analytical, scientific and psychological account of just who will be lifting the famous jug-eared trophy at Wembley come the close of Saturday.
Barcelona Are Quiet Favourites
Beginning with the very basics; Barcelona’s philosophy of ‘we score more goals than you’ backed up by their ‘Cruyff inspired 4-3-3 formation’ does not and will not change. They go into the match as quiet favorites (although they will never admit it). Pep Guardiola’s men know if they bring almost their best game they will win – simple as that.
Always remember that Barcelona are a better football team (on paper and in reality) than Manchester United and have had a much harder run to the final having eliminated perhaps the second best team in Europe – Jose Mourinho’s Real Madrid in the semi-finals.
Can Manchester United outscore Barcelona? Can Manchester United stop Barcelona netting? How do you stop the front three trio of Lionel Messi, David Villa and Pedro? Too many doubts emerge from these three key questions and on the basis of their goal scoring record over the past few seasons, when facing Barca, any opposition manager ought to resign himself to the probability that the Catalan machine – with Messi – will net at least once during the match. They carry just too much attacking threat which will at one point during the final hurt United.
What if Barcelona Score First?
If Barcelona score first the match will be 85% done. Others differ, but just like in Rome two seasons ago when Barcelona netted after 10 minutes to effectively settle the match, the psychological impact of United going behind will weigh heavily on the players.
Self-doubt, hesitation and rumination will creep into the team which, minus Tevez and a certain Cristiano Ronaldo, is arguably weaker than the 2009 version – at least quality wise. If the Catalans go 2-0 up expect to see the fat lady emerge quickly.
Granted, Pep’s men have blown leads to Inter Milan, Arsenal (twice) and Real Sociedad this year and last year, but that was on the proviso of over confidence pertaining to a resolute belief that if need be, the result could be overturned. For example, when Arsenal equalized at the Camp Nou in February, to lead the tie 3-2, the home side proceeded to score two goals with ease and wrestle the tie back into their favour. Every goal the Spaniards score against United potentizes their unquenchable need and belief in victory.
Will Barcelona Overrun United in Midfield?
If Manchester United play with two players in the middle of the park, they will be overrun by Barcelona’s midfield trio of Xavi, Iniesta and Sergio Busquets. This being so, Fergie will have to deploy a five man midfield which can easily revert to fluid counter-attacking 4-4-1-1 machine when necessary.
The middle of the park itself is key and if – as in Rome – United cannot match/negate the aforementioned Barca trio in midfield, then expect Xavi and co to gleefully keep possession of the ball whilst seeking to feed inch-perfect through balls to the onrushing Messi/Villa/Pedro triumvirate.
What if Manchester United Score First?
Bar a corner or a deflected freekick, it is hard to see how Manchester United will score when they will not have much of the ball. Counter-attacking is the way of the game for Fergie’s men and Sevilla, Atletico Madrid, Inter Milan, Arsenal and even Real Sociedad have shown in recent years that Barca can be beaten with a well constructed counter-attacking plan.
The problem is, how brave will Manchester United be? Playing at Wembley will mean little – the players on both sides have played in giant matches before – in fact, if anything, playing at Wembley may aid the ‘visitors’. Incidentally, United’s record at the New Wembley is quite poor. In recent years they have lost to Everton and Manchester City in FA Cup semi-finals, in addition to losing to Chelsea in the utterly forgettable FA Cup final in 2007 as well as the community shield in 2009. Barcelona (donning their home strip) will take to the pitch like the Spanish Armada seeking to setup a ‘Camp Nou’-style possession-match whereby they have much of the ball and happily pound the United rearguard.
Will Barcelona Be Overwhelmed by the United Spirit?
If anybody can, United can is saying which rings deep on the lips of every football fan in England. They just can never be doubted and so more ‘what ifs’ get thrown into the mix.
- What if it is United’s destiny to avenge Rome 2009?
- What if United get an early penalty?
- What if there is a red card for Gerard Pique who suffers from horrendous lapses of concentration from time-to-time?
- What if Vidic heads home the opener from a corner with 20 minutes left on the clock?
- What if Messi gets stretchered off injured?
- What if Edwin Van der Sar has the game of his life reminiscent of his amazing performance against Arsenal in the FA Cup 6th Round?
A far from vintage Manchester side won the league this year despite not pulling up many trees and their 19th league crown seems to be achieved more with Fergie’s men’s ‘never-say-die-attitude’. 2-0 down to West Ham – they won. Title decider against Chelsea at Old Trafford? The hosts sent the Blues packing in a first-half blitz, and of course who will forget all those late strikes? Just ask Everton, West Brom, Stoke City, Manchester City, Blackpool, Valencia and Aston Villa. Nevertheless, will raw spirit and the will to win overcome silky skill, elegance and footballing grace?
0-0 Suits Manchester United
The longer the match stays at 0-0, the better it will suit Manchester United. Quite simply it leaves the Barcelona less-and-less time to score and scientifically more jaded as they seek to close a very long-winding season with a bang.
When Barca become desperate to score, they lost their defensive discipline and Fergie’s men can capitalize on this. Barcelona are dictators on the ball; and dictators don’t like revolutionaries and they hate not being in control.
If United’s game plan works well for a prolonged spell during Saturday’s final, La Blaugrana may become hasty – giving the Red Devils a free shot. Just like in Rome 2009, Pep’s troops need to be in control of most, if not all things – ball, possession, chances, defence and discipline as many on-lookers back United in the wake of the so-called ‘Bernabeu Scandal’.
So here are the complete In The Stands Predictions for the 2011 UEFA Champions League final:
Barcelona Score First – If this happens (especially early on) United may struggle to react as their game plan could be badly rocked, leaving the Catalans fresh to deliver the killer second and third if need be. Barca will score for sure.
Manchester United Score First – Depending on what time they score and how they net, should United strike first, then get ready for a truly epic final. Barca will have to go hard leaving the possibility of Hernandez and Rooney hitting the Catalans on the break, a la Inter Milan last year. If United go ahead late into the match, then the best Barca can hope for is extra-time.
Extra Time – Extra-time will suit Barcelona as it gives them more time to score. Pep’s men want and need three things to overwhelm United: time, space and an opportunity to attack from which extra-time will provide all three for another 30 minutes.
Penalties – This may suit Manchester United as it lowers the percentage gap between the two sides. Furthermore, Edwin Van der Sar is an excellent penalty stopper and if he dives the correct way, he will save any spot kick. Barca harbour very technical, ball-striking players but should they be pushed to penalties, their long season will begin to take its toll.
Penalties represents too much of an uncertainty, too much of a lottery for Barcelona to feel fully confident in victory. Remember, a dictator always loves control and assurance.
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